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What, Me Worry that the Web is getting Constipat….
October 14, 2009 | 
Author Game portals are the talk of the town … but I was worried. Arstechnica raises and answers the question will the Internet Die due to 1)No Net Neutrality; 2)Continuing impossible grwth rates; or 3)Continued use by high traffic video, TV, and gaming websites. They said no …what? me worry?
In that spirit I offer you the following:
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Chrome OS Questions
Chrome OS has generated more questions than answers since its announcement. And the questions [doubts] are relevant:
1)InfoWorld – Will Chrome OS collapse under the weight of its own Web browser?
2)Information Week – describes several challenges including Desktop/Cloud integration
3)Information Week – good analysis of the strategy/positioning of Chrome OS
4)PCAdvisor – Is Chrome OS bad for Google Android ?
5)ITPro – Is Chrome OS bad for Linux?
These are just a few of the legitimate questions that have percolated up in the past few weeks. My favorites are how will Chrome OS beat such great “instant-on” utilities such as SplashUp or Dell Latitude ON among some very good offerings? Or how well will Chrome OS deliver device and peripheral support? Well sometime between September and maybe mid November of the 9th year of the 21st century, Google has promised to release its Chrome OS beta as Open Source – and a lot of questions will get real software to be compared and worked with.
Now as a matter of interest, Windows Azure, Microsoft’s Cloud-based OS has a similar release date window. Azure is the opposite of Chrome OS – it is a server side OS similar to Amazon EC2- Elastic Cloud Computing services. It seems Microsoft will be delivering a Cloud solution similar to Amazons existing and popular SaaS offering – a cloud service OS accessed through a browser and some special development apps. Now what is Google doing – changing/expanding that browser interface with Chrome OS? Just another question awaiting Chrome OS beta.
Time for Naked Shorts of Apple?
It is your last chance to do naked shorts of Apple – for two reasons. First, the SEC is working hard to eliminate naked shorts from market trading. Second, Apple will be vulnerable as its stock is skyrocketing towards Fall when the great PC/Laptop/Netbook/Smartphone conflagaration will unfold. But I suspect that after the correction by the end of the year the opportunity will be gone. What is the Fall and Christmas PC/Laptop/Netbook/Smartphone Conflagaration ?
Well, we have already seen the start of it with the downward drift of prices for Smartphones. Next there is the downward pressure on laptop and notebook prices with Netbooks leading the way as Fall prices in the $200 range are on tap [see Infoworld's description of a whole new category of mobile Netbooks]. Yet the the flood of bargain basement laptops continues unabated – see here for $299 machines from Bestbuy and a flock of machines $298 and more from Wal-mart . This Fall there will be a flood of cheap computing from the Laptop and Netbook suppliers including Acer, Asus HP, Dell and Toshiba. And with the availability of Google Android and posssibly Chrome OS the netbooks subsidized by telecos may dip below $100 [with 2 year telco contract] . And a new category of smartbook machine with very fast boot up times [around 10 seconds], long battery life [minimum of 5 to 10 hours], full keyboard, 10″ screen, and 2GHz+2GB core engines [but see cautions from ZDnet here]. In short, there is going to be a huge watershed in personal computing starting in Fall 2009. And the prices seem to be starting at $300US and going down.
Now who is going to prosper?
What vendors and what form factors are going to succeed. Very Cheap and Very Fast and Very Long-batttery life and Very Connected. So lets see how Apple stacks up against the tsunami of very cheap computing power. First question, is Apple Cheap enough? Amazon is currently offering a MacBook mc240LL/A 13.3″ screen with the following feature set:
- 2.13 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo Processor
- 2 GB of 800MHz DDR2 RAM
- 160 GB 5400RPM Hard Drive, DVD/CD SuperDrive
- Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard Operating System
- Advanced GeForce 9400M NVidia Graphics, 13.3 Inch Glossy Display
- Price $961.49
Compare this with $298 for the same basic hardware specs from Wal-mart. As always Apple is the premium price spread because of OS/X, but at 3 times and in the midst of a recssionary down turn….how can Apple Desktop and Notebook sales hold up?
Is MacBook fast – faster than Vista but that is not saying much these days. Boot up time is about 40 seconds according to my Apple friends[30 according to CNET]. Will this be good enough versus the 10 second boot time for NetBooks and Smartbooks ?
Is MacBook a long-lifer? Consensus is not the Apple-claimed 6 hours but around 4 hours – not bad for a laptop but half the Netbook/Smartbook 8 hour life.
Is Apple connected? Yes full Wifi but what about WiMax that is starting to rollout and is getting more attention. Probably but will have to confirm.
Apple Strikes Back
Now in late September Apple is due to have its Netbook/Tablet/MediaCharm ready. But the very good scuttlebut is that this is a)NOT a phone but b)primarily a touchscreen media and game center that will be able to link to the Web. So this any media-center [so long as it is not a phone or Skype-capable] will be charged with protecting MacBooks from the scourge of Netbooks/Smartbooks and iPhones from the incursion of Netbooks and other Smartphones. In short, will this Magic TouchScreen Tablet be able to fill in the slot that cheap PCs, NetBooks and Smartphones-aplenty will be creating. Uhh … I really don’t think so – and so I am really planning to get naked for Apple.
“Most IT pros not planning on Windows 7 rollout”
“Most IT pros not planning on Windows 7 rollout” is the headline of an article at the IT scoop site, theRegister. The story is based on a survey done of 1100 business users by Scriptlogix. This survey goes counter to what Microsoft has been saying about users reactions to Windows 7.
A number of factors are cited for the rejection of Windows 7:
1)Time to test and rollout the OS;
2)formidable learning curve for existing users particularly with revamped Office 2010;
3)1/3 of firms do not have staff because they have cut staff or delayed hires;
4)the step from Windows XP to Windows 7 is perceived as being even more daunting.
Bottomline is that the survey found that 60% of surveyed users have no plans whatsoever to upgrade to Windows 7. The Register notes:
“ScriptLogic’s findings will jolt Microsoft who’s already deemed Windows 7 a success, at least in hitting the development milestones. The data also runs counter to an apparently emerging industry wisdom that Microsoft’s next client will be a relative shoo-in compared to Windows Vista, because it offers significantly improved performance – and because nothing could ever be as bad as Windows Vista.“
This analysis does not take into account that a)Windows Vista is not faster than Windows XP and b)will be faced with odious comparison for speed/performance with Apple’s Snow Leopard and Google’s Android and Chrome OS. One begins to wonder if Microsoft is getting to be a fumble-butt in the OS game.
Google Chrome OS: Pivotal Player
Google will have not one but two OS available for Netbooks and PCs by this time next year. Google Android has already been adopted for smartphones and is also being used on a number of Netbooks for introduction this Fall. But now Google has officially announced the Google Chrome OS – which is a new “bird” – being attached to the Chrome browser(sound like Internet Explorer and Windows 95???), configured to be Open Source and simple in the UI, very secure (the OS kernel based on Linux is being modified to put in new security schemes), and geared to boot-up and run very fast. This is the Anti-OS/X-or Windows-7 approach with their huge GUI interfaces, networking and app support logic. Instead, Google Chrome OS is built to support the Chrome browser and Cloud/Net operations. And Google says the OS will be free and Open Source and available in the Fall of 2009 to developers and intrepid users. In 2010, it will be officially released.
Who is In on this OS
The full and official release of the OS with PC/Netbook hardware is slated for second half 2010. The hardware vendors on board are: ACER, Asus, Freescale and HP. Two anomalous vendors on board are TI and Qualcomm – which implies a smartphone version or other goodies. The lone software player is Adobe – so Flash is likely to run here. The Wired Gadget blog has some neat speculation on Chrome OS purpose here.
JavaScript Implications
The Google’s Danes who are behind the fast performing Chrome Browser JavaScript are on the Job again. The JavaScript questions are intriguing because as you can see here, there is a unique version of JavaScript for every major browser vendor. The standard appears to be the international ECMAScript 262- Version 3 with each vendor adding its own chosen extensions some of which move towards JavaScript 2.0/ECMAScript 4.0 – the proposed new standard [however there is discord here].
Currently Adobe, in its Flash development language, ActionScript 3 comes closest to implementing the target JavaScript 2.0/ECMAScript 4.0. But of course ActionScript only runs in the Adobe Flash Player and AIR its online/offline Linux/Mac/Windows player. Next comes Mozilla with the Gecko-based Firefox 3.x which is gradually approaching ECMAScript 4 but has made major advancements with implementation of E4X, etc.
However, there is discord in the JavaScript community.
The ECMAScript 4 spec moves JavaScript much closer to Java and C++ with strong typing, packages, interfaces, and namespace. It takes the language and puts it on a more secure and developer-oriented footing. But the learning curve goes up massively [just ask Flash CS2 to CS4 Developers]. There is open revolt against this among the major JavaScript developers [Yahoo and Microsoft principally]. The interim solution ECMAScript Harmony does a sort of PHP-izing [or C++-izing] of the OO features of JavaScript 4 – i.e makes some of the OO features available but not required. Strict rules like packages, namespecaces, earlybinding and others are relaxed, etc. So with JavaScript and AJAX frameworks playing such a critical role in Web 2.0, SaaS, and Enterprise Web development – what and how Google chooses to develop its JavaScript will be important. Google could:
1)Implement some important chunks of JavaScript 2, like E4X which really improves XML and JSON processing but otherwise back off the strict standard;
2)Work with Microsoft and target the ECMAScript Harmony implementation;
3)Work like Mozilla and move towards the ECMAScript 4 strict standard but in small critical chunks.
So with the announcement of Chrome OS, Google becomes not only a major player in OS design [simple, fast, and Web oriented versus comprehensive, GUI/3D-laden, and desktop oriented] but also in the future of the underlying Web engine, JavaScript.
Summary
Hmmm Chrome OS is very intriguing. Google versus desktop and GUI-oriented Apple OS/X and Microsoft Windows 7. Google being major player on the evolution of JavaScript engine design. And Google competing with itself(and its partners who are free to add apps and functions to both Google Android OS and Google Chrome OS as they are Open Source). Google’s Android OS will not deliver multitouch screen operations[at least not any built by Google] … but why not some enterprising start up? So Google will hope to keep its OS from being ossified by having two versions – and saying let her rip.
But even more fascinating will be how the Open Source and Linux community take to these offerings. Which Google OS will they choose to support ? And will the Linux community support either Android or Chrome which takes Linux in a simplifying and Web oriented direction [in contrast to the desktop heavy Ubuntu 8 or Fedora 7 Linux versions]. But will the opportunity to make a Linux breakthrough on the desktop be so attractive that Open Sourcers will flock to Google? One thing is for certain – with the Chrome OS announcement, the next year will not be dull and complacent in the World of OS and Web software development as some of the major trends/debates in development converge around Google Chrome OS.