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Year Ahead in Client Computing I
December 31, 2011 | 
Author Robert Scoble said this at the BBC Year-end Technology Forecast about client computing:
On the train here I was with an executive from General Electric, and he said a year ago they were very anti-iPad. But in January at their global meeting they’re going to hand out iPads. It is crazy to think about a company that size moving that quickly… the enterprise world is going iPad very quickly.
I wonders if Microsoft can stop Apple ‘taking over the world’? Next year it’s going to be interesting – can Microsoft keep its global position in terms of operating system and stop Apple from taking over the world? And Amazon, because Amazon has the £200 tablet. For consumers it’s going to be a tough choice – do we buy a Windows 8 tablet, or an iPad, or an Amazon tablet?
Ye Editor replied this:
If tablets turn in on themselves with huge computing power, great screens, and convenient dockability like in Asus Transformer Prime or the Windows 8 dockable tablets – then a)GE will have gone iPads too soon, b)Linux in Android form will be a player in client computing like never before and c)if Windows 8 does not stumble like Vista on reliability, the Windows monopoly will be broken but not humpty-dumptied as 3 major vendors compete tooth and nail [and patents] for leadership of the Post-PC era of new client computing. See here.
Like what is happening in social media with Facebook, Google + , Twitter and a dozen others – when there is competition the market innovates at a crazy pace. But client computing has suffered the Windows monopoly for 20 years and now Apple iOS is making a patent war stab to secure that position going forward. Lets hope they don’t succeed.
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Whither Goes PC OEMs
Tim Bajarin has been an astute observer of the PC and Server scenes. His comments at TechOpinion imply that Windows 8 is gaining momentum on PCs and tablets especially among large PC OEMs like HP. No argument there because the PC OEMs, who have lost market to the tablets and smartphones because users who want to simply consume media and link to the Web, have Android and iOS devices more than equal to the task and are no longer buying notebooks or laptops.
But Tim dismisses Android for having a breakneck development schedule for the past two years and poor connections to the business community. He is missing two key points here. First, Android, had to race along to catch up with and now move ahead of iOS devices. Android 4 compared to iOS5 finds Android moving ahead again in multitasking, social media connections [borrowing the People tab blatantly from Windows Metro], UI customization, and NFC-Near Field Communication for mobile wallets and document exchanges. Meanwhile iOS5 is seeing serious hiccups with its battery control and Siri voice implementation. But underlying Android 4 was the unification of smartphone and tablet versions of Android.
Now as Android prospers because developers have so many choices [Java, FLEX+Flash, Windev, and QT among other tools that are cross platform except to versus the Objective C approach of Apple iOS – Google can not only unite its tablet and smartphone versions but also put the releases on a more OEM friendly schedule. But speaking of OEM friendly, it is notable that only major Asian players like Samsung nd HTC with one exception of Motorola now owned by Google have been able to offer Android in smartphones and tablet form that could compete with Apple.
The second point is that Android offers the business community a lot more than Tim is giving Google credit for. First, with padphones like Asus Padfone and Motorola Atrix and tabtops like Asus Tranformer series powered with quad core chips like Nvidia’s Tegra3 , suddenly PC-computing power and displays are available to Androids that can function as laptops yet also deliver touch and sensor driven goodies as well. And all of this computing power can be linked to the Cloud with Googles full range of services that are getting wider acceptance in the business community. And that stable of 500,000 Android apps is getting better and better as well as growing fast.
Finally, Microsoft has to stand and deliver. The design of Windows 8 is certaily a winner. But the implementation and operation of Windows 8 is a whole new ballgame. Last time Microsoft delivered a major OS rewrite, it was a disaster with Vista. What the word on the street is that .DLL Hell is still a problem in Redmond. So PC OEMs really have to hedge their bets and do a reverse of Asus CEO Jonney Shih and invest in Android to cover their OS bets.
As Internet Explorer Dwindles
In a searching article, Ars Technica describes the state of the browser market and the withering away of Internet Explorer. After 12 years in which which IE reached an apex at 95% browser market share in 2004, IE crossed the line on October 2011 at less than 50% overall [desktop+mobile]market share according ArsTechnica. However, if you check Wikipedia, 4 out of its 5 browser market measuring agencies had IE dipping below the 50% market months ago. Only Net Applications see IE market share above 50%[but also dropping at the rate of 1% per month]. So clearly IE has crossed the line at being an acceptable browser given the caliber of competitive browsers.
And this is the real substance of the ArsTechnica report. Yes, IE9 and IE10 have greatly improved their compliance with HTML4 , CSS2 or earlier, and DOM but they still lag in basic W3C standards compliance with proprietary extensions and incomplete implementations. And as for HTML5, CSS3 and the latest JavaScript/ECMAScript, Microsoft lags badly being the worst by a large margin of the 5 major browsers in the new standards compliance.
Ars Technica describes how the IE browsers also trail the 4 other major browsers in technical and user features. The IE extensions API is not as rich as Firefox and Chrome and so Redmonds add-ons are not as popular as their rivals. Likewise new display and performance features appear first in other browsers like Opera[gestures, server-based Turbo speed ups, mobile extensions], Safari [touch on mobiles, new page hints], Chrome[new page hints, JavaScript performance improvements] and Firefox[first to tabs and tab refinements, JavaScript performance tunings]. In general, Redmond has lurched over the past 5 years between browser improvements and then falling behind yet again.
And these problems with the browsers and the Web is reflected in Microsoft’s wavering and ultimate failing by falling hopelessly behind in the Mobile marketplace now being defined by Apple, Google and a host of Asian smartphone, tablet and PC suppliers. Redmond’s efforts in new markets are slowed, weakened and inevitably done in by “the need” to protect its Windows and Office cash cows. Instead of putting customers experience and benefits first, the Microsoft priority is how to force fit the latest tech trends into an existing Microsoft Windows and other software context.Contrast this with Steve Jobs at Apple who has added features and functionality to Iphone and iPad that are now costing iPod market share – this is Economists Joseph Schumpeter’s famous disruptive innovation. And thus Redmond’s willingness to consider potentially disruptive technologies is restrained by having to pass the ultmate criteria – how well it can be made to fit into the existing Microsoft product portfolio. Kinect in Xbox and gaming Yes, the Web and Mobile devices, No – only on our terms. And so goes Microsoft for the forseeable future – a Windows island adrift in a world of rapid and disruptive technological change.
The Dockable Tablet Great Reveal
On November 9th, Asus will release its latest dockable tablet, the Asus Transformer Prime onto the market with Tegra3 processor and a host of other goodies[see here for detailed specs]. Transformer Prime will be running Android Honeycomb, not the latest Andoid 4 Ice Cream Sandwich. Also given the pricing of the Amazon Kindle Fire at $199, the Asus Prime will have a pricing hurdle to clear. But ye Editor believes that the combination of form factors – a tablet that can be made easily into a laptop is a winning design in the consumer market going forward. And Transformer Prime’s generous screen size of 1280 x 800; the WiFi, HDMI, microSD, and USB ports; yet all the tablet sensors and multi-touch ease of operation – all add up to a very versatile and winning new mobile design, a Tabtop that can be transformed from easily carried and used tablet into a more powerful and productive laptop for school and office use.
Perhaps the most important of all the Transformer Prime features is the powerful quad-core Nvidia Tegra 3 CPU. This CPU offers 2-4 times the performance of the already formidable Tegra 2 processor while consuming 30% less power using clever clone core technology. This chip will deliver much faster browser load and operating times, improved audio and video rendering at highest resolutions, broader and better gaming experiences, and in general, better multitasking performance. And all for less power and better battery life than existing dual core chips. This is a better than Moore’s law improvement performance – better than doubling in much less than 1 year.
So it is Back to the Future last seen in the late 1980′s and 1990′s when the inexorable Moore’s Law improvements in CPUs and memory made rapid changes and the possibility of Microsoft Windows ,then hopelessly behind Apple Macs, grow into not just a viable but PC conquering operating system. Windows was big and rapidly getting bloated plus full of hacking holes but at first the latter did not matter and the former allowed Redmond to add features faster than anybody else and get developers on board. The same may be happening with Android with less security trauma. But the real Android payoff will be all sorts of apps waiting to roost on all the multi-touch, GPS, and sensor smarts built into the Tabtop that is Transformer Prime.
True,Windows 8 has the same multitasking and PC software roots as Android’s Linux; but it is an open question whether Microsoft can deliver before this time next year and with an unknown degree of reliability[Microsoft presence and announcement at CES in early January will be a must-see event]. But Apple appears not to have iOS in shape nor the CPU chip to take advantage of the enormous computing power available through quad-core CPUs.
Ye Editor has been arguing that Dockable Tablets is the winning form factor. And the British appear to agree giving Transformer Prime’s predecessor the EEE Pad Tranformer Gadget Design of the Year honors. This means that Smartphones morphing into Padphones and Tablets morphing into Tabtops will transform both the mobile and PC markets with new market-winning form factors/designs sooner rather than later. It is also ye Editor’s guess that Steve Jobs just did not have dockable tablets on his agenda[no idea whether current CEO Tim Cook has anticipated this disruptive movement]. So the upcoming market acceptance of the Asus Transformer Prime [and its PadFone cousin in early 2012] will test ye Editors notions of the importance of dockable tablets. See ya around Christmas time and then CES in the new year where I will be either enjoying an egg nog or wiping egg off my face.
HP Gets Back into Tablets and PCs
HP has announced that it will be back in the PC and Microsoft saddle again. It will be delivering a Windows 8 tablet according to yet another new CEO, Meg Whitman. But this was a necessary but not sufficient condition for HP’s survival. Abandoning the PC and tablet businesses was a disastrous decision.
HP like Microsoft has to be a major player in the tablet PC game. Tablets are just going to become dockable PCs with touch+gesture operations, long battery life, plus lightweight portability.Still rapidly improving computing power is going to make tablets > laptops and notebooks in performance. Brobdingnagian Workstation PCs for software development, modeling/simulation and high level media creation work will become a niche. The business and consumer PC maintstream will be dockable tablets. And right now Windows 8 may be the best price performance fit for that Dockable Tablet World. Smart recovery move by HP. But why the hell make the Apotheker appointment?
Marketwatch gives Wall Street’s assessment of the recent HP moves… and they are blunt:
Hewlett-Packard shares were up Friday, a day after the company said it’s keeping its personal computer business, ending speculation that the world’s top PC maker might exit that business…H-P shares gained 3.5% to close at $27.94, the top gainer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock remains deep in negative territory for the year, however, down about 34% as investors have questioned the company’s strategic direction and frequent management upheavals.
“The entire H-P saga of the past 14 months has been among the saddest and [most] confusing examples of self-inflicted damage that we have seen in our 13 years of Wall Street research,” Richard Kugele of Needham & Co. wrote in a note to clients entitled “A circus without the popcorn.”
Amen.